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The trend towards electrification and intelligence of automobiles will not change
Date: 2024-11-28
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On November 24th, the 22nd Guangzhou International Auto Show with the theme of "New Technology, New Life" came to an end. This auto show brought together over 80 domestic and foreign car brands, showcasing a total of 1171 cars, including 78 global debuts and 512 new energy vehicles. Both the number of exhibited vehicles and the proportion of new energy vehicle models have reached a new high.

Hybrid technology leaps into the mainstream

Unlike previous years when new energy vehicles focused on pure electric vehicles, this year major car manufacturers have increased the launch of extended range and plug-in hybrid models.

Haobo HL, a high-end brand under GAC Aion, made its global debut. Gu Huinan, General Manager of GAC Aion, stated that by 2025, the company will launch multiple products such as range extender and plug-in hybrid, making it the "second growth curve" after pure electric vehicles.

Avita 11 dual power debuted at the Guangzhou Auto Show and started pre-sales. Avita Technology Vice President Yong Jun said, "Avita will embark on a new journey of range extension layout across the entire range, and Avita will also become the only high-end brand in the entire range that offers both range extension and pure electric dual power options

Wenjie has released a new generation of super extended range system. According to He Liyang, President of SAIC Motor, the system is built on the "SAIC Wing (C2E) extended range architecture" and "RoboREX intelligent control technology", achieving three industry-leading advantages of quietness, high integration, and high efficiency.

Xiaopeng Motors showcased the Xiaopeng Kunpeng super electric system. Kun represents the super extended range system, while Peng represents the pure electric system. Empowered by AI, the Xiaopeng Kunpeng super electric system can achieve 'dual energy for one vehicle', with a pure electric range of 430 kilometers and a comprehensive range of over 1400 kilometers. "Xiaopeng Motors Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng explained that entering the extended range track can help the vehicle better adapt to different situations in overseas markets.

Three years ago, the industry was still discussing whether range extender and plug-in hybrid were outdated technologies and transitional products. Nowadays, range extender and plug-in hybrid have not reached their end, but have instead exploded and become one of the mainstream routes of new energy. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of pure electric vehicle models reached 5.83 million units in the first 10 months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The sales of plug-in hybrid models, including range extender, reached 3.915 million units, a year-on-year increase of 85%. The growth of China's new energy vehicle market this year mainly comes from the promotion of hybrid models, "said Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

At the 22nd Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition, new energy vehicles have attracted much attention. Photo by Deng Hua, Xinhua News Agency reporter

Intelligent driving is flourishing

At this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, both new forces and traditional car companies are showcasing their intelligent capabilities and future intelligent layouts through different means.

Changan Automobile has changed the new product launch of this year's Guangzhou Auto Show to a technology morning tea party, sharing the latest achievements in intelligent landing, especially Changan Intelligent Driving, Tianshu Large Model, flying cars and humanoid robots, and other technological layouts and future plans.

Among the new forces, whether it's Xiaomi participating in the Guangzhou Auto Show for the first time, or NIO, Ideal, or Xiaopeng without any new car releases, they never forget to promote their own intelligent driving technology. On the day before the Guangzhou Auto Show, Xiaomi founder Lei Jun livestreamed the parking to parking intelligent driving function of Xiaomi SU7. At the auto show, Jike unveiled the end-to-end Plus architecture of its self-developed Haohan Intelligent Driving 2.0, aimed at advanced intelligent driving. In the end-to-end model, Jike introduced its first digital foresight network.

The current penetration rate of intelligent functions in automobiles is accelerating, and intelligent driving and intelligent cabin will become the driving force for the growth of automotive components. Users' recognition of intelligent functions is increasing, "said Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association. Computing power, algorithms, and chips are the focus of investment for automotive companies in the next step, and they are also the strategic pivot for achieving competitiveness transfer. However, as these new fields are not within the traditional automotive industry's expertise, cross-border forces such as consumer electronics and communications are needed to join.

In addition to gathering the "Four Realms" families of Wenjie, Zhijie, Xiangjie, and Zunjie for the first time at the Hongmeng Zhixing booth, Huawei's popularity also permeates various venues, including Avita, Changan Shenlan, Lantu, Equation Leopard, Audi, GAC and other brands, all equipped with Huawei ADS intelligent driving solutions.

"At present, the installed proportion of L2 and above intelligent driving in the domestic market has reached about 50%. By August 2024, China has cumulatively issued 16000 test plates for autonomous vehicle, and opened up 32000 kilometers of public test roads." Wang Xia, president of the Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, believes that the AI big model has brought new possibilities to intelligent technology. The continuous breakthroughs in hybrid technology, solid state batteries, and hydrogen fuel cell technology have also brought new possibilities to electrification and intelligence, and even brought about the adjustment of technical routes. The competition of technology is still the main theme of the "second half" of automobiles.

The joint venture between SAIC and Audi has had a weak voice for many years, and this year's Guangzhou Auto Show demonstrates the firm determination of electrification transformation. Audi will launch three new models in the next three years, with the first model expected to be launched in 2025, "said Song Feiming, CEO of the Audi SAIC cooperation project

BMW Group made its debut at the Guangzhou Auto Show, showcasing its innovative progress in the intelligent transformation: BMW's intelligent driving technology research and development is accelerating, and the "vehicle road cloud integration" V2X technology will be "launched" in January next year for the all-new BMW 5 Series, seizing the opportunity for high-speed and advanced intelligent driving; The intelligent cockpit continues to undergo local research and development, with 70% of the latest BMW operating system developed by a Chinese team, specifically tailored for Chinese consumers. BMW Group's President and CEO of Greater China, Gao Xiang, stated that "in the future, BMW will continue to increase its research and development investment, work together with China's innovative forces, and give back to the world.

Under the joint venture 2.0 system, GAC Toyota has launched 'Fusion 2030', jumped to 'Technology Guangfeng', and once again challenged the annual production and sales of millions, becoming a leading brand in the era of smart electronics, "said Wen Dali, Executive Vice General Manager of GAC Toyota

Dongfeng Nissan has released its latest intelligent technology achievements under the "GLOCAL" mode, officially unveiling its first pure electric vehicle model N7 under the new energy architecture. Previously, we were slow in the transition to new energy, "said Zhou Feng, Vice President of Dongfeng Co., Ltd. and Deputy General Manager of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company. In order to catch up with the pace of industrial electrification and intelligent transformation, Dongfeng Nissan's new cars will widely adopt self-developed architecture in the future. We will increase investment in the transformation towards new energy and intelligent fields, and the R&D center will double its size from the previous 2000 people within 3 years, with a research and development investment of no less than 10 billion yuan, "said Zhou Feng.

Elimination continues to intensify

Although the price war started at the beginning of last year and opposition has never ceased, the smoke of the price war still pervaded this year's Guangzhou Auto Show. At the auto show, SAIC Volkswagen launched a mid to large fuel MPV model, the Weiran, with a starting price of 199900 yuan, which is nearly 90000 yuan lower than the old Weiran; The starting price of the BAIC Jihu New Alpha T5 terminal is 123800 yuan, a decrease of 32000 yuan from the guide price; Cadillac announced on the first day of the auto show that the limited time XT6, which was launched that day, would start at a fixed price of 349900 yuan, a drop of 100000 yuan from the official guide price of 449900 yuan.

The price war combined with the transformation of the electrification and intelligence industries is constantly intensifying the elimination rounds. Compared with the previous Guangzhou Auto Show, this year's manufacturers such as Genesis, Jaguar Land Rover, Chevrolet, Subaru, Polestar, Jetta, Gaohe, Qichen, Hechuang, Dayun, as well as brands such as Rolls Royce, Feifan, Yuanhang, and Blue Electric under Sailis have disappeared.

Encouraged by national policies, a large amount of industrial and financial capital flowed into the new energy vehicle track 10 years ago, leading to a new wave of "car making" in China. At its peak, there were over 300 Chinese companies queuing up to apply for car manufacturing qualifications, and more than 60 new car manufacturing forces released new energy strategies. He Xiaopeng said that now there are only over 10 new car manufacturing forces with sales, and most of them have low annual sales. Xiaopeng Motors has survived the first 10 years of auditions. In his opinion, the truly brutal elimination round has just begun, and brands that have not reached a sales volume of one million vehicles are unlikely to become the ultimate winners.

In 2014, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was less than 100000 units, with a penetration rate of only 0.32%. In the first 10 months of this year, it was close to 40%, and passenger cars even exceeded 50% in a single month. It is the rise of many new energy vehicle companies and the increase in penetration rate of new energy vehicles that have diluted the total sales volume. "Wang Xia said that like fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles also require economies of scale. From this perspective, fierce market competition and elimination rounds are intensifying, and it will take time for the concentration of the domestic automotive industry to return to the upward trend. But the general trend of electrification and intelligent transformation is certain, and what is uncertain is the changes in speed, rhythm, cycle, and pattern.